Current Block Times Suggest Bitcoin Halving Is Coming Earlier Than Expected – Featured Bitcoin News

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Bitcoin’s hashrate has turned hot despite falling prices and recent increases in difficulty. In fact, blocks are discovered faster than the average ten-minute block interval, and due to this factor, the network reward halving may occur sooner than expected. While some halving counters that simply exploit the ten-minute average note that the halving is scheduled for May or April 2024, halving counters exploiting precise block interval times show that the event halving could happen as early as March 1, 2024.

Block intervals show halving date could be much closer than expected

As the cryptocurrency community focuses on The Merge, the hash power behind the Bitcoin network has been higher than usual, which has accelerated blocking intervals. Currently, there are 244.62 exahash per second (EH/s) dedicated to the blockchain, and on September 4, 2022, it reached a rapid lifespan at 301.45 PE/s at the height of block 752 510.

Current block times suggest Bitcoin's halving is coming sooner than expected
Bitcoin block times have been well below the ten-minute average, which means blocks are being found faster.

Just before the end of August, Bitcoin.com News reported on how Bitcoin block times have been much faster than the ten-minute average. When block times are faster than the ten-minute average and remain consistently faster for the two weeks preceding a difficulty change, the change will increase the difficulty.

This happened on August 31, when the Bitcoin network printed the second biggest difficulty increase in 2022. The difficulty increase hasn’t slowed miners down and the next difficulty change, expected on September 15, is should increase again by more than 3%.

Current block times suggest Bitcoin's halving is coming sooner than expected
According bitcoinsensus.com data, the halving is expected to take place on March 2, 2024 or 509 days from now.

Block times were much faster than the ten minute interval and on 9/11 the average blocking time lasted less than eight minutes. The speed of block discovery has meant that the Bitcoin network halving may come much sooner than expected. However, the estimate is based on data and speeds recorded at the moment, and there is still more than a year to go that could change things indefinitely.

Today Data from bitcoinsensus.com and metric from nicehash.com indicate that the fourth Bitcoin halving event will take place in March 2024. The date is well before the often used date Estimate of May 3, 2024which leverages a ten-minute block interval to calculate the halving date.

In fact, bitcoinsensus.com displays two counters, one based on current block times (8.50 minutes) and the other based on the average of ten minutes per block. Bitcoinsensus.com estimates that the current halving date, based on actual block times, will be March 2, 2024. So instead of 598 days, the Bitcoin block halving is estimated at 509 days.

Nicehash.com’s halving counter shows that the date could take place on March 1, 2024, or a day before the estimate displayed on the bitcoinsensus.com web portal. Every time 210,000 blocks are mined, the block rewards halves.

Current block times suggest Bitcoin's halving is coming sooner than expected
Lock in reward halvings over time.

The current block reward is 6.25 BTC per block and by the time the next halving takes place, miners will receive 3,125 coins per block after the halving. A closer halving suggests that the price could rise sooner than expected, as bitcoin’s value typically increases before the block reward halving.

Keywords in this story

April 2024, Bitcoin block halving, bitcoin halving, bitcoinsensus.com, Block half, block interval, block intervals, block rewards, block grant, Block time, BTC block halving, BTC halving, counters, difficult, Featured, Halving, halving counters, halving date, Hashpower, Hashrate, March, March 1st, March 2024, May 2024, Mining difficulty, nicehash.com

What do you think of the Bitcoin block halving coming sooner than expected? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the news manager for Bitcoin.com News and a fintech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He is passionate about Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written over 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about disruptive protocols emerging today.




Image credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. This is not a direct offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any product, service or company. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.



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